The Problem with North Korea

North Korea has reached the point where they think that just to threaten to attack Guam will change the direction of US policy and get the US to apologize and perhaps end the embargo. At the same time the NK’s are saying how foolish the US is proceed on the course it is. This is a paradox, the North in the first place is expecting a rational reaction (appeasement) while saying how foolish the US is, which recognizes what the NK’s consider irrational behavior.

All the while North Korea is painting itself into a corner where you go so far with threat that even if you don’t mean it you have to do it to maintain credibility. At that point, attacking Guam, the NK’s have to wonder, will the US retaliate with conventional or nuclear weapons?

As for solving the Gordian knot, that is China’s problem. If they hadn’t supported NK in the Korean War, there wouldn’t be any NK today. And ever since the Korean War, China has used NK as a proxy to goad the US into spending it’s treasure while the Chinese just sat back and built up their treasure. It is a very old principle of how to bleed your enemy into losing without a shout being fired.

An important question for China is, will the NK’s turn on them? Russia is cozying up to NK now and undermining Chinese influence, which the Chinese cannot like. They would have Russia to the north of China and a Russian client state to the south with NK. China is very sensitive about their borders.

What can China do? A “shock and awe” attack on NK – they have been building up troops on the China/NK border – and eliminate the NK state. Then to buy goodwill with the international community, China lets the Koreas unify with the understanding that above the 38th parallel. Korea would be a de-militarized zone except for the equivalent of a “national guard” for civil order, rescue and humanitarian services.

The Chinese have to be mindful of any radioactive fallout, with prevailing winds, would blow from NK right into the heart of China. For America, that would be, in diplomatic speak, “oops”. But karma is like that

Advertisements

The man of a thousand promises . . . . not kept

“Obama Vows To ‘Stand By’ Gulf Allies Amid Concern Over Iran Threat”

The man of a thousand promises . . . . not kept . . . . and the Saudis know it and are planning against it. Saudi Arabia helped finance Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program and has been quietly talking to them about “something”. 

OPEC and the War on US Oil

Inside OPEC room, Naimi declares price war on U.S. shale oil

What OPEC fails to see

1) It’s not just oil that fracking releases – it’s oil AND gas

2) The US is placing increased emphasis on natural gas use to fight climate change

3) Standard OPEC greed will return when US production decreases and fracking will return if it decreases, but it won’t. People want the natural gas and you get the oil with the gas

4) The oil being produced in the US is ultralight, which means it’s cheaper to refine and more profit per barrel

5) If the US can produce enough for itself of low polluting ultralight, who needs heavy, hard to refine and heavy polluting oil from Venezuela? I doubt Venezuela will ever have a US market again.

6) Once the Canadian fracking fully reaches the US, the small OPEC producers will have no choice bu to quit or sell at even lower prices

7) OPEC doesn’t seem to realize that energy independence in the US is a mantra and a holy grail. If the US produces an abundance, there is no need for OPEC oil at any price short of free.

8) If the US keeps producing, it can become a net exporter and eat up OPEC market share. Europe is tied of twisting in the political winds of people they disagree with.

 

OPEC is learning only when their oil is cheap do they have any influence. But they got greedy and thought the good years couldn’t end. America should be grateful to Pres. Obama for this oil boom . . . if he hadn’t tried to kill the oil industry, we would never have had the shale boom and Big Oil would still be pursuing hard to get, harder to refine conventional oil supplies.

In one fell swoop, Pres Obama put serious hurt to renewal energy, OPEC and lowered the cost of energy while driving trying to drive the price up. With a friend like him for enviros and Arabs, who needs enemies?

Sometimes the ends do justify the means, Barry 😆

As for OPEC, you can’t win for losing 😎

The rise of the right in Europe

You may have noticed the increase in nationalism and right-wing activity in Europe. Totalitarianism is rearing it’s head again and this time is all of Europe including Russia (too much economic activity to call it communist) and this activity is in part caused by the economic conditions Europe has suffered through complicated by immigration issues. Although you’d think the economics would be the over-riding issue, it isn’t. It’s all immigration, in the minor outsiders taking precious jobs from locals, and in the major it is demographics – Europe is becoming less European.

It has been an issue for a while now that the “native” gene pool is diminishing and being replaced by outsiders. This really shouldn’t be any surprise, it’s how Europe came to be populated in the first place, either by populating it in the first place or new people coming in and displacing the old. All those nomadic tribes went someplace. But this time the established population isn’t going quietly because they have no place to go except die out and people are resisting that by trying to “de-immigrize” Europe and it does matter for two reasons.

1) Islam is a re-vitalized religion looking to take over in Europe and they won’t even have to fight to do it. And easy victories only feed the need to expand.

2) Totalitarianism is an aggressive and violent political movement, not only will it go after immigrants, it will go after other countries and wide scale war will return to Europe. Europeans love to preach peace and coexistence to Americans when civilization is a facade for Europeans and not a deep one. They still have the genes of their nomadic ancestors just beneath the skin.

There is this article showing the demographics and highlighting the diminishing gene pool.

These people are not going to go quietly into the night, especially when three of them – England, France and Russia – have nuclear weapons and old grudges to settle with the countries that are the sources of the immigrants.

Welcome to the 21st century – get us off this planet SOON!

Syria Gives Russia Chemical Weapons Evidence

I like this – article link – One wolf gives another wolf proof the sheep did it.

While the rebels aren’t sheep, neither is Damascus a wasteland which it would be if the rebels had chem weapons. I wonder how Assad and Putin will refute the ballistic missile data true US has and refuses to release.

Assad and Putin are doing the old trick that if you say it loud enough and loud enough it will become the truth. More power to them, they are painting themselves into a corner already occupied by Obama.

Given enough time, the three of them will start a full out Mid East war, or maybe WWIII. God knows that Putin is just itching to show that Russia is a superpower and Iran wants to use all those shiny new toys they have and become a regional power

Obama, Kerry and Kim – Kim’s winning

U.S. tells North Korea new missile launch would be “huge mistake”

“U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned North Korea on Friday that it would be a “huge mistake” to test launch a medium-range missile and said the United States would never accept the reclusive country as a nuclear power.”

Oh yeah, John? NK is already a nuclear power. So what ya gonna do? Call The Ghostbusters? Bore the North into submission? Iran is watching, laughing and building their own nukes without fear of being stopped

North Korea and war

Several world leaders and authoritative figures have said that North Korea would be crazy to attack. But the last time I heard someone say something like that, it was the President of Afghanistan when the Taliban ruled the country. That president said the U.S. would never attack, that the U.S. would be crazy to considering how the Russians had got chewed up.

The Russian analogy had holes in it since forcing the Russians out had in part depended on American weapons, most notably Stingers, being supplied to the Muhadajeen. The other part was the financial drain the Russia-Afghan War was on the Russians. They just couldn’t afford the ongoing cost.

Now we jump ahead to today and we see North Korea, potentially with nuclear weapons and seeing the U.S. having to cut back on military operations due to budget constraints. The U.S. is in a this-or-that position of dealing with Iran or North Korea and NK sees it as a parallel to what happened to Russia in Afghanistan where NK starts a war and the U.S. can’t stay in the fight. 

So is the leadership of North Korea crazy . . . . or crazy like a fox?

U.S. officials keep saying backdown if you want to end the isolation, but NK sees an advantage of ratcheting up the pressure because they know they are not going to do anything. What they want is a government in the South that leans towards appeasement of the North, one that would like sanctions. In the past few days NK has been telling companies and tourists to evacuate the South because of a “state of war” exists. If this were to happen, the exodus of tourists and businesses, the South would suffer a probable recession with loss of money and jobs. In a case like this voters usually elect politicians from the party not in power and the first thing, when elected, these politicians would do is reverse the policies that brought on the recession by appeasing the North.

There is also the threats that the North cannot guarantee the safety of foreign diplomats in North Korea.

The North is running a psychological warfare operation – crash the South Korean economy and weaken the political will of those that support sanctions.

For the U.S. to stay at near war conditions costs a lot of money and all the North has to do to make this so is bellicose rhetoric and moving a couple missiles around and that costs NK very little. The U.S. looks quite weak in that light as the Russians could say since they are looking to take advantage of the U.S. the same way NK is. No U.S., no international sanctions.

What does the North have to lose? back down and possibly loose control of the country or move ahead because they have nothing to loose.

But the North has spooked the Chinese and that is the most dangerous game of all – biting the hand that feeds you