Iran, Sanctions and the Global Economy

Now that Iran can return to the global economy and sell oil openly, I see one of three things happening

1) Oil prices will collapse beyond the short term (they will collapse in the short-term regardless)

2) Oil prices will stay down but the global economy will improve with all the money Iran has to spend

3) The global economy will improve and oil prices will go back up from additional consumption

Iran is going to be on a buying binge but some of it will not be reflected in the global economy improving in the short term of 1 to 3 years because Iran has to boot strap itself back up. There is a lot of infrastructure that needs work and people trained. Even the potential sale of planes from Airbus will take time to realize. It could be Iran buys a lot of stuff now and it just sits. The Iranian hardliners are going to insist on a lot of new “toys” for the nuclear deal and that will cut into improving the economy and standard of living.

There is also the geopolitical conflicts Iran participates in like those of Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. Iran has yet to renounce the destruction of Israel and sanctions are still in place for military equipment and the ballistic missile program. If Iran keeps picking fights with Saudi Arabia, the Saudi’s will go ahead and acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan, a program the Saudi’s paid for. 

Iran is still a long ways from being stable or a reliable place to do business

There is an additional feature to the end of Iranian sanctions – the demise of Russian oil and gas sales. Western Europe wants to get away from Russian supplies as Russia is even more willing then OPEC to use oil and gas supplies as a political weapon. Although Russia like to think it’s more then a one-trick pony, it isn’t and the second collapse of the Russian economy – and government – may only be weeks or months away. 

Worried about sub-$20 crude? Some sellers are already there

The Iranians well and truly played the Russians and Putin. China, as Russia’s only market that wants them, now owns Putin. Putin will desperately need a deal with the West to get sanctions lifted as soon as possible or he will be looking for a new job.

Russian ruble drops to a new low, battered by weak oil prices

It could be considered something of a “backdoor” legacy for President Obama that this is happening. he was trying to wreck the U.S. oil industry to drive up prices to make electric cars more viable by ending access to to federal lands. Instead he created the rush to private land and the fracking boom that led to America to becoming virtually energy independent. And with the end to oil export embargo, pressure is being created on OPEC and “near-OPEC” countries, like Russia, to defend their market share.

OPEC and “near-OPEC” countries are in a bind. If they raise prices it opens the door to American producers and loss of market share for the 20 or so years that Brent LCOc1 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 would run wild or to keep prices down and suffer the effects to their economies. It might seem after that 20 years OPEC and “near-OPEC” countries would regain the power to control oil again, but that will be enough time for countries importing oil to make the shift to a renewable energy economy, perhaps even a fusion economy (if Lockheed can deliver), which would be a genuine revolution

The course of history hasn’t changed, but a page has been turned and the one-trick pony economies will fade into the background

Advertisements

Pope: Europe Can Handle Refugees

Pope calling for a bold strategy to deal with global migration, says Europe can absorb refugees.

The Pope is from the Jesuit branch of the Catholic Church. The Jesuits are noted for their intelligence and education – they are not just believers, they are knowers. But this Jesuit, this Pope, is not a knower, he is naive and ignores the past, especially that of Christianity.

All you have to do is look at the history of Christianity and how it swarmed over the world wiping out indigenous cultures and religions and replacing those with that of Christianity. And in that age, that age when Christianity took over, Christianity used many of the sane techniques that Islam does today – torture, forced conversions, killing unbelievers. History is clear on this.

The end result was Christianity became the dominant religion across several continents – Europe, Africa, North and South America, Australia and created deep wedges into Asia.

And now Islam and the refugees from Islamic nations are doing that to Christianity and the Pope is fine with that. The Pope thinks Christianity can withstand the corruption of itself and remain true to itself and it’s culture.

But he’s wrong, Christianity, especially in the form of the Catholic Church, has sacrificed its moral authority in endless scandals stretching back not just years or decades, but centuries. This is reflected in western society and it’s people’s opting out of organized religion for “none” and choosing a course of spirituality and a one-to-one relationship with God because the leaders of organized religion no longer represent us and the only truth they tell is to serve their own interests and hide their crimes.

All the Pope can do, what any religious leader, can do, is say, “believe in us” without giving you anything to believe except words and never solutions.

The Pope berates people for the callousness towards climate change, when he offers no changes on the part of the Catholic Church and all he does is listen to warped media reports from people looking to make money and the Pope forgets, ‘money is the root of all evil”. Perhaps the Pope will take note that the people warming of global warming were predicting global COOLING and a new ICE AGE in the 1970’s

The Pope has access to the scientific leaders of the world to form an independent and accurate opinion of climate change and take an honest look at the churches, the cathedrals, the Vatican and how ecologically obsolete those buildings are and should be replaced. Then move on to real solutions like fuel cell cars that eat pollution here and now rather then depending on renewal energy that relies on expensive batters that takes so very much water to make. There is also the other half of the solution, fusion reactors that can turn deserts into forests and eliminate all the waste in the world by recycling. The Catholic Church could pay for this, but they hoard what they have to serve their own ends rather then that of humanity like they preach.

Organized religion has failed us, is it any wonder we want a new way clear of the obstructions between God and us? That we fulfill God’s plan and grow from being His children to being adults.